Angela Natividad's Live & Uncensored!

07 June 2010

The World Cup Predicted

I love how data visualisation, coupled with easy access to information, is now fueled by a subculture of people interested in presenting information - telling new stories, really - in creative ways.

And one of my favourite things to watch is how some are trying to suss out the perfect formula for predicting outcomes, particularly in niche series of events with clear rules and variables, like the World Cup. (Barring any shenanigans, anyway.)

Image credit: Section Design.


Esteban Contreras said...

Ok, Brazil, Germany, and Spain make a lot of sense.. but Serbia?? And Italy just lost to Mexico (viva Mexico!) so not sure about that one..

that said.. nice data vis!

Howie said...

Usually the 'Sports Jinx' triumphs over everything. When a spectator or announcer says something is guaranteed...its now. If they say will. If they say it hasn''s just about too.

So if the announcer says 'this Quarterback hasn't thrown an interception in 238 passes' is about to happen. Its ridunckulous how often this happens. (ridunckulous is ridiculous but to 10 to the 4th Power).

That being said the NFL Football Odds line is crowd sourced. The goal is to have half the people win, half lose, and make money on the extra (the vig)the loser has to pay. So this 'line' moves as the money moves. If say the NY Giants started getting heavy money they make it more risky until all is in balance. And Amazingly enough this crowd sourced point spread is highly accurate.

Except the Superbowl where the favorites beat the spread like 75% of he time.